While Vladimir Putin warns that he is ready to use any military means necessary in the war with Ukraine, experts must take seriously the possibility of a Russian use of nuclear weapons.
Core items:
- The Russian president has announced plans to mobilize 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and has threatened to use nuclear weapons
- A US military expert said it was a credible threat but ultimately counterproductive for Russia
- Experts have described Russia’s strategy as a “desperate” attempt to replenish its exhausted army
In a televised address this week, the Russian leader ordered the country’s first military mobilization since World War II and warned that if the West proceeded with what he called “nuclear blackmail,” Moscow would respond with its full military arsenal.
“When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we use all available means to protect our people – this is not a bluff,” Putin said.
Retired US Army Major John Spencer told ABC News Daily he believed Vladimir Putin was ready to use nuclear weapons.
“Personally, I think that’s a credible threat,” he said.
“[Russia] has the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world, behind only the United States.”
“He’s a terrorist with nuclear weapons, I really can’t put it any other way.”
But Mr Spencer, who holds the chair in urban warfare at the Modern War Institute, said using such weapons would ultimately be counterproductive for Russia.
“If a nuclear, biological or chemical weapon is used in Ukraine – even if it is a tactical one – it will not lead to Russia achieving its strategic goals of overtaking Ukraine,” he said.
“It’s only going to change the war because other nations have to respond based on what’s being used.”
Mr Spencer added that the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) would change the rules by which the war is conducted, increasing the likelihood of Western retaliation.
“If Russia uses weapons of mass destruction, in my opinion that will be the end of the Putin regime and the end of the Russian Federation as it exists today,” he said.
Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer is also skeptical that nuclear weapons would further Russia’s goals.
Speaking to RN Breakfast, Dr. Rimhauer that using them would contradict Vladimir Putin’s entire rationale for the invasion.
“Putin said Ukrainians are basically like Russians taken over by bad guys,” he said.
“Nuking and razing cities that they historically see as the heartland of Russia doesn’t make much sense.”
“I don’t think the use of nuclear weapons is imminent right now, and that’s more or less the response from Washington that they take it seriously, but they don’t think it’s going to happen any time soon.”
How many troops could Russia mobilize?
By announcing a partial military mobilization, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that up to 300,000 Russian reservists could be sent to Ukraine.
But John Spencer said the Russian reservists were poorly trained and would take a long time to mobilize.
“Russia has no reserve forces,” he said.
“He’s basically saying that people who have served in the military at some point are forced back into the military and trained for two weeks and then sent to the front lines in Ukraine.”
“The first round will probably be more like 10,000 to 20,000 troops – not 300,000 – because [Putin] just doesn’t have the infrastructure for it.”
Mr Spencer said the move was a desperate attempt by the Kremlin to replenish an army that has suffered significant casualties in recent weeks.
“By some estimates they lost over 80,000 soldiers,” he said.
“Ukraine is destroying its military, so he wants to take these men who served in the military at one point and then get them to fill in the gaps… to hold the Donbass [region].”
The referendum strategy
As Russia sought to mobilize more troops, John Spencer pointed to another strategy he says the Kremlin is using in eastern Ukraine: referendums.
In recent days, four Russian-controlled regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia – all said they would hold referenda on joining Russia.
Russia does not fully control any of the four regions, with only around 60 percent of the Donetsk region in Russian hands and a small part of the Luhansk region recently recaptured by Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called the votes “sham referendums” and said they would change nothing.
However, Mr Spencer said Russia plans to use the referendums as part of its military strategy.
“They’re going to hold these votes to say that all these people in these areas voted they want to be Russian,” he said.
“Russia will claim ‘this is Russian land’ and put it in its constitution so they can make up this narrative that they are defending Russian territory.”
“Then they will use Russian proxies to govern and basically subjugate the people of those areas.”
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week it was up to people living in separatist-controlled areas of Ukraine to decide whether to hold referenda on joining Russia.
“From the beginning of the operation… we said that the peoples of the respective areas should decide their fate, and the whole current situation confirms that they want to be masters of their fate,” he said.
dr Pavel Felgenhauer said the referendums, which are expected to take place between September 23 and 27, will be used as further justification for the military mobilization.
“That means it would be Russian territory, occupied by Ukrainians, backed by the West, and Russia has to liberate them,” he said.
“This changes the nature of the war as Russia (as Putin claimed in his speech) fights for its territory and for its very existence.”
Can Ukraine still win the war?
Despite the mobilization of more Russian troops and the escalation of language, John Spencer believes Ukraine will ultimately win the war.
“I don’t think that changes what I predict will ultimately be a victory for Ukraine,” he said.
“To literally herd prisoners to the front lines…would not turn the tide of the war in their favor.”
“[Putin’s] lost so much momentum, his equipment is so poorly maintained, but most importantly… if a soldier doesn’t have the will to fight, they literally won’t fire back.
dr Felgenhauer said the prospect of a prolonged war could be politically dangerous for Vladimir Putin domestically as well.
“If Russian forces continue to falter on the battlefield in the coming months, then we are talking about a winter campaign, then again in the spring, then maybe a summer campaign by 2023,” he said.
“If things continue like this and things don’t improve significantly, the Putin regime could face serious problems.”
